World Cup Qualifying Scenarios: When, How and Which Teams Requires Which Results?
Group A
Might the unimaginable occur? Die Mannschaft have not once failed to qualify for the World Cup but the four-time champions must avoid mistakes if they are to seal first place after falling against the Slovak team in their first match. Julian Nagelsmann’s side lead Slovakia on net goals and need to defeat Luxembourg on the weekend and see whether Northern Ireland – guaranteed a qualifying round after finishing top of their Nations League group – can do them any favours in Slovakia on the same night. Germany finish against Slovakia in Leipzig on Monday in what could be a winner-takes-all showdown. Sides finishing runner-up go into the playoffs.
Group B
The Swiss team will qualify on Saturday if they achieve a better result at home to Sweden than Kosovo achieve in the Slovenian venue. Switzerland’s vastly superior goal ratio ensures they will be almost assured of a tournament spot if they match Kosovo’s performance. But if Kosovo close the three-point gap to the leaders, things will be excitingly poised for their final game at home to Switzerland in Pristina on Tuesday. Sweden, coached by their new manager for the initial occasion, should make the qualifying stage by merit of having topped their Nations League group.
Section C
With the Greek team and the Belarusian side eliminated, it is a direct battle between Denmark and Scotland for direct entry. Steve Clarke’s side enter the last pair of games behind on net goals so will probably need at least a draw in Athens on Saturday to have a chance of seizing top spot when they meet Denmark at Hampden Park on 18 November.
Group D
Les Bleus have a playoff in the bag thanks of the international competition and will advance in top spot if they beat Ukraine in Paris on Thursday. Additionally a draw would leave France set fair going into their last match in the Azerbaijani venue considering they are ahead of Ukraine by three points and have a goal ratio better by several. An Iceland victory in Baku on Thursday combined with a France win over Ukraine would move Iceland into second on net goals before they meet Ukraine on Sunday in Warsaw. The Azerbaijani team's minimal chances of reaching a qualifying round require victories over Iceland and France and sufficiently improving their negative goal difference.
Section E
La Roja, having won their first four matches, are on the brink of securing a spot. If they achieve a superior outcome in Georgia on Saturday than Turkey secure at home to the Bulgarian side they will ensure top spot, and equaling Turkey’s performance would almost confirm qualification given their goal difference is superior than Turkey’s by a dozen. Turkey need a draw – or a slip by Georgia – to secure a qualification round. They finish on Tuesday in Seville against Spain, who beat them 6-0 in September.
Section F
An injury-time leveling goal by Hungary’s their captain in Lisbon last month has made the Portuguese side delay their celebration to book their spot. A pair of points from games in the Republic of Ireland on Thursday and at home to the Armenian side on Sunday would ensure first position. The Hungarian squad, who are in second, a single point ahead of Ireland, would obtain a qualifying round on Thursday if they win in Armenia and Ireland lose to Portugal. Otherwise the playoff spot may depend on Hungary’s game against Ireland in Budapest on Sunday.
Group G
the Polish team’s aspirations of overhauling the Netherlands, who are ahead of them by several points with a vastly superior net goals, rest on defeating the Dutch squad in Warsaw on Friday and wishing eliminated the Lithuanian team can help them in Amsterdam on Monday. The Netherlands drew at home to Poland in September but have otherwise secured most games easily. Finland, who face Malta in their final game on Friday, have an slim possibility of making the qualification stage if Poland are defeated to the Netherlands and Malta.
Section H
Three teams are in contention to end top, although the Austrian team are aware a victory over Cyprus on Saturday combined with runner-up the Bosnian team losing or tying at home to third-position Romania would confirm qualification. Bosnia, two points behind Austria with a goal difference worse by several, journey to Vienna on Tuesday. Romania, who need two wins to have a opportunity of top spot, host San Marino that day. There is the fascinating chance that San Marino, Fifa’s lowest-ranked nation, could book a qualification place after topping their Nations League group, if Romania finish second – a situation that could rely on how many goals they net in their final match.
Group I
the Norwegian team are ahead of the Italian side by several points and no one else can finish in the top two. A victory for Norway at home to Estonia on Thursday would effectively guarantee qualification before they travel to San Siro on Sunday because the remarkable 29 goals plundered by their star striker and teammates from half a dozen games have provided the team a frankly ridiculous net goals of positive twenty-six, 16 ahead of Italy. The Italian squad require full points from their games, which start in Moldova on Thursday, and a Norway mistake against Estonia to evade the qualifying round for which they seem destined as they attempt to qualify for a first World Cup since 2014.
Section J
Belgium need a single victory from a pair of matches to be sure of automatic qualification and face a possibly difficult fixture in Kazakhstan on Saturday. If they do not manage it there, the Belgian squad should secure top spot against Liechtenstein on Tuesday. Wales and the Macedonian team have mathematical hope of overtaking Belgium but are realistically playing for the runner-up spot. Wales are guaranteed of a qualification round due to the Nations League but must finish as second place to avoid being among the lower-ranked teams and having an away semi-final. Securing victory in Liechtenstein on Saturday and at home to North Macedonia on Tuesday would ensure runner-up for Wales. If Wales defeat Liechtenstein by a large margin a tie with North Macedonia, whose only remaining game is in Cardiff, would be enough.
Group K
the English team last month became the initial UEFA team to secure their spot for the global tournament and Thomas Tuchel’s side will have a big say in the battle for the runner-up spot. Serbia trail Albania by a single point and almost certainly need a positive result at Wembley on Thursday because defeat combined with an Albania win in Andorra would end their qualification chances. The Albanian national team, who have not once secured a spot for the global event but have made the Euros finals on two occasions, in 2016 and 2024, face England in Tirana in their last game as Serbia entertain the Latvian team.
Section L
Croatia, semi-finalists at the previous two tournaments, need a point at home to the the Faroese side on Friday or in Montenegro on Monday to secure their spot in the tournament again. They can be overhauled only by the the Czech team, who are several points behind with one game remaining, at home to Gibraltar on Monday, but a net goals inferior by 15. The Faroe Islands, shock victors against the Czech Republic last month, will finish in second in the improbable scenario that they achieve a better result against Croatia than the Czech Republic achieve against Gibraltar.
Playoffs
At the draw on 20 November the dozen second-place teams will be accompanied by the four best-ranked Nations League