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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."